🍩 DONUT HOLES

• Shapella upgrade took place yesterday (4/12). The eagerly awaited launch of staking withdrawals has arrived at last.

• Twitter Inc. no longer exists. Elon Musk is changing the corporate name to X Corp.

• OpenAI is paying up to $20K for finding bugs on ChatGPT. Depending on the likelihood and impact of the glitch, you can get paid anywhere from $200 to $20,000.

• More Bitcoin “dormant” than ever—53% of Bitcoins have never been moved for more than 2 years, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin adoption

• OpenSea’s comeback against Blur—OpenSea Pro tops Blur in NFT trade volume

In case you missed last week…

Our research duo, Harry and John, were deep in a heated debate during our weekly huddle. John's all-in on Bitcoin soaring to new heights by 2025, while Harry's convinced it'll nosedive below $20K any moment now.

Just last week, John laid out his case for why Bitcoin's future is looking bright—and as if on cue, Bitcoin skyrocketed to a 10-week high just days later.

Now it's Harry's turn at bat, with the pressure cranked up. Will he hit a home run?

Why Bitcoin’s going to dip

Although Harry agrees Bitcoin’s a good long-term investment, he thinks it will surely dip below $20K before it reaches a new all-time high.

Why? Because the U.S. government is selling $1.2B worth of Bitcoin later this year.

Why does Uncle Sam have $1.2B worth of Bitcoin?

About a decade ago, the dark web saw the birth of its first black market—Silk Road. This shady corner offered a platform for users to anonymously trade drugs and other illicit goodies using Bitcoin.

Then along came James Zhong, who managed to steal over 50,000 Bitcoins from the Silk Road, exploiting its system. Eventually, the ever-vigilant IRS, as relentless as a bulldog on a bone, caught Zhong in 2021 and snatched up all his stolen BTC.

Sell, sell, sell

Just last month, the government sold 9,800 of the 50,000 Bitcoins it confiscated, cashing in $216 million. And guess what? They've got plans to sell the remaining 41,490 BTC, valued at a whopping $1.2 billion, sometime this year. A sale this massive can definitely put a dent in Bitcoin's price.

But wait, there’s more…

It is estimated that the government’s total BTC holdings exceed 200,000 (worth around $6B), which puts them among the biggest whales out there. While we don’t know when they’ll sell off their remaining stash, the fact that they’ve started to liquidate them is definitely something to watch out for.

Is there really no “second best”?

Bitcoin diehards, or "maxis," are known for their unwavering faith in Bitcoin over all other cryptocurrencies, and Michael Saylor is the poster child for this mindset. As CEO of Microstrategy, he's been loading up on Bitcoin since 2020, amassing a staggering 140,000 BTC—about 1 out of every 150 in existence.

When asked about altcoins, he famously answered, “There is no second best.”

But what if he invested in ETH instead?

Saylor might want to reconsider that statement, considering his 3-year investment has barely broken even, saved only by this week's 5% bump.

Had Saylor invested in Ether instead, he'd be sitting on a $2.97 billion profit (btw, Microstrategy's market cap is $3.4B).

And if he'd staked all that ETH? He'd have raked in an extra $570M in revenue—surpassing even Microstrategy's best year in operating income.

In fact, the graph above shows that ETH consistently outperformed BTC.

Moral of the story: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket

The takeaway here is clear. No matter how enticing an asset seems, diversifying your portfolio is a smarter move than going all-in. Keeping an open mind and being willing to change your stance over time is invaluable in this ever-evolving space!

🐦 TWEET OF THE WEEK