📈 MARKETS

Ether rallied to a nine-month high ahead of the Shapella upgrade, which Ethereum fans believe will make it a better long term investment. This upgrade will allow owners to withdraw their locked up ETHs which they didn’t have access to for more than two years.

🍩 DONUT HOLES

• Dogecoin surges 35% after Elon Musk switches Twitter logo with Doge

• Trump indictment, first for a U.S. president

• This book on Bitcoin is #1 on Amazon

• Average Wall Street bonus plunges 26% to $176,700

• China’s Yuan replaces $USD as most traded currency in Russia

• Former CTO of Square and founder of Cash App fatally stabbed in SF

How the debate started

Our research duo, Harry and John, were deep in a heated debate during our weekly meeting. John's all-in on Bitcoin soaring to new heights by 2025, while Harry's convinced it'll nosedive to $19K any moment now.

While their arguments were straight-up just fun to watch, it was loaded with solid research too!

So, we're bringing their arguments straight to you. This week, John's up, dishing out the deets on why he thinks it's prime time to grab some BTC.

Bitcoin halving = Prices doubling?

One of Bitcoin’s super-hyped events is just a year away. Bitcoin halving rolls around only every four years, and it’s one that many investors drool over.

Right now, about 900 new Bitcoins are mined every day. When Bitcoin halving takes place around April 6th, 2024, only 450 Bitcoins will be mined each day. There’s less supply coming in, so as long as the demand stays the same, prices should go up—basic ECON 101 stuff, right?

Not just a theory

As you can see above, Bitcoin prices have historically risen as much as 100x around Bitcoin halving, especially in the year that follows. There was never an exception since the inception of Bitcoin in 2008.

If the pattern continues, Pantera Capital (fyi - one of the biggest crypto hedge fund in the world) predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $148K by mid 2025.

This is a once-in-four-years buying opportunity, and keep in mind—each halving's impact dwindles with every subsequent event. Don't miss out!

Just follow the MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-Score is a simple indicator that helps identify if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. 

It compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average price people paid for it. A high score hints at profitable holders and potential overvaluation of Bitcoin, while a low score suggests undervaluation.

You can learn more about the MVRV Z-score here.

Glancing at the chart

The black is Bitcoin’s price and the orange is the MVRV Z-score. If you bought Bitcoin every time the z-score dipped down to the green and sold when it hit the red, you would’ve made crazy gains every. single. time.

It’s why many investors often use this score to help them make better buy or sell decisions. Notice how every time the MVRV Z-score hit the green, the price of Bitcoin never fell below that point.

History speaks for itself

• 2012 purchase, 2014 sale = 1000% return

• 2015 purchase, 2018 sale = 2000% gain

• 2019 purchase, 2021 sale = 1500% profit

If you started investing $100 in 2012 with this strategy and reinvested all your gains, you would be sitting on $369,600 now. Crazy, huh?

Currently, the MVRV Z-Score is slightly above the green, but still chilling relatively low. So, grab your shades and buy in! For mid-to-long-term investors, consider buying now and start cashing out when the MVRV Z-score hits 6 or 7.

🐦 TWEET OF THE WEEK

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Though Bitcoin halving and MVRV Z-score have accurately forecasted Bitcoin's trends for a decade, they've only occurred three or four times each. So, even if they make history again, it's not too shocking. To play it safe, keep an eye out for Harry's take next week!